Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation
重新审视当前人口调查中雇主间转换的测量问题,发现2007年后缺失回答激增且存在选择性偏差,提出插补模型后修正的序列不再下降并与商业周期吻合。
We revisit measurement of employer-to-employer (EE) transitions in the monthly Current Population Survey. The incidence of missing answers to the question on change of employer sharply increases starting with the introduction of a new software instrument to conduct interviews in January 2007 and of the Respondent Identification Policy in 2008–2009. We document nonrandom nonresponse selection by observable and unobservable worker characteristics that correlate with EE mobility. We propose a selection model and a procedure to impute missing answers. Our imputed EE aggregate series no longer trends down after 2000 and restores a close congruence with the business cycle after 2007.