Investor emotions and market bubbles
研究通过分析媒体叙事和情绪词典,直接测量投机市场泡沫中影响投资者决策的情绪,并用中国股市两次泡沫(2005-2008和2014-2016)验证情绪动态对市场行为的解释力。
Abstract Asset pricing bubbles are highly emotional market episodes. Despite this, investor emotions are not part of traditional bubble models. We measure the powerful affects influencing investor decisions during speculative market bubbles directly employing textual analysis of media narratives and domain-specific emotion keyword dictionaries and show how understanding investor emotional dynamics helps explain market behavior. Specifically, we focus on the two Chinese stock market bubbles of 2005–2008 and 2014–2016; there is no evidence of investor learning from experience. Despite Chinese media being censored we show it still has strong explanatory power although the independent English language media can provide an additional perspective. Deeper emotions dominate more superficial feelings in information content.