条件密度的上水平集与多元分位数回归

On superlevel sets of conditional densities and multivariate quantile regression

Journal of Econometrics · 2024
被引 1
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

提出用条件多元密度的上水平集作为多元分位数的替代定义,具有清晰的概率解释和良好的数学性质,并通过高斯混合模型估计,应用于家庭支出研究。

Abstract

Some common proposals of multivariate quantiles do not sufficiently control the probability content, while others do not always accurately reflect the concentration of probability mass. We suggest superlevel sets of conditional multivariate densities as an alternative to current multivariate quantile definitions. Hence, the superlevel set is a function of conditioning variables much like in quantile regression. We show that conditional superlevel sets have favorable mathematical and intuitive features, and support a clear probabilistic interpretation. We derive the superlevel sets for a conditional or marginal density of interest from an (overfitted) multivariate Gaussian mixture model. This approach guarantees logically consistent (i.e., non-crossing) conditional superlevel sets and also allows us to obtain more traditional univariate quantiles. We demonstrate recovery of the true conditional univariate quantiles for distributions with correlation, heteroskedasticity, or asymmetry and apply our method in univariate and multivariate settings to a study on household expenditures.

条件超水平集多元分位数回归条件密度高斯混合模型