地震是增加还是减少犯罪?

Do earthquakes increase or decrease crime?

World Development · 2024
被引 4
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究了2017年9月墨西哥地震对人身犯罪(袭击)和财产犯罪(破坏财物)的影响,发现袭击增加14%、破坏财物增加8%。

Abstract

Theories on the relationship between earthquakes and crime present mixed predictions. On the one hand, earthquakes improve individual cooperation, social trust, and crime reduction. On the other hand, earthquakes impact state capacity and enhance the prevalence of motivated offenders such as street gangs. This study empirically analyzes the effects of the September 2017 earthquakes in Mexico on personal crimes (assault and aggravated assault) and property crimes (vehicle theft, residential burglary, and vandalism). Using official police data, a difference-in-differences technique, and an event-study design, the results show that earthquakes increased assault by 14 percent and vandalism by 8 percent.

地震犯罪率双重差分法墨西哥