Quantifying impacts of sustainable transport interventions in Scotland: A system dynamics approach
构建系统动力学模型，评估苏格兰2030年前多项交通干预措施（如短途出行转向步行骑行、中长途转向公交、公交电动化、私家车电动化）对减排和减少汽车行驶里程的效果，发现多措并举才能达标，且减少行驶里程不保证减排目标实现。
To overcome the challenge transport presents to net zero, the Scottish Government has proposed a series of interventions to significantly reduce transport emissions and car kilometres travelled. This paper develops, validates and applies a system dynamics model of the Scottish road passenger transport sector to interrogate key proposed interventions up to 2030: namely, modal shifting sub-10 km car journeys to active travel, modal shifting medium-length car journeys to buses, achieving a majority electrification of the bus fleet, and replacing 50 % of petrol/diesel cars with electric vehicles. Results indicate government targets can be met, but only as a result of multiple interventions. Modal shifting of medium-length car journeys and private car electrification are predicted to be the most effective interventions for emissions reduction, although these measures alone do not attain reduction targets. Results further indicate that realising the reduction in car kilometres does not guarantee the emissions target will also be achieved.