Economic Shocks and Populism
研究了负面经济冲击后，选民在安全现任与风险对手之间的偏好变化，发现经济失望的选民更倾向于风险偏好，从而支持更冒险的候选人。基于德国社会经济面板数据验证了理论预测。
Abstract We study how voters’ preferences between a safe incumbent and a risky opponent change in the aftermath of a negative aggregate shock. With reference-dependent preferences, economically disappointed voters become risk lovers, and are hence attracted by the more risky candidate. Survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are consistent with our assumptions and theoretical predictions on voters’ behaviour.