Ovarian cancer deaths attributable to asbestos exposure in Lombardy (Italy) in 2000–2018
该研究利用贝叶斯联合疾病模型，基于2000-2018年意大利伦巴第大区卵巢癌、胸膜癌和乳腺癌死亡率数据，估计了归因于石棉暴露的卵巢癌死亡比例和人数。
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the fraction of deaths from ovarian cancer attributable to asbestos exposure in Lombardy Region, Italy, using a novel approach that exploits the fact that ovarian cancer asbestos exposure is associated with pleural cancer and other risk factors for breast cancer. METHODS: This ecological study is based on the Italian National Institute of Statistics mortality data. We formulate a trivariate Bayesian joint disease model to estimate the attributable fraction (AF) and the number of ovarian cancer deaths attributable to asbestos exposure from the geographic distribution of ovarian, pleural and breast cancer mortality at the municipality level from 2000 to 2018. Expected deaths and standardised mortality ratios were calculated using regional rates. RESULTS: We found shared dependencies between ovarian and pleural cancer, which capture risk factors common to the two diseases (asbestos exposure), and a spatially structured clustering component shared between ovarian and breast cancer, capturing other risk factors. Based on 10 462 ovarian cancer deaths, we estimated that 574 (95% credibility interval 388-819) were attributable to asbestos (AF 5.5%; 95% credibility interval 3.7-7.8). AF reaches 34%-47% in some municipalities with known heavy asbestos pollution. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of asbestos on ovarian cancer occurrence can be relevant, particularly in areas with high asbestos exposure. Estimating attributable cases was possible only by using advanced Bayesian modelling to consider other risk factors for ovarian cancer. These findings are instrumental in tailoring public health surveillance programmes and implementing compensation and prevention policies.