Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data
利用1990-2017年152个国家1500多个地区的年度数据，研究发现温度上升对地区人均收入无短期或非线性影响，但长期内对制度薄弱国家的少数地区有负面效应，且伴随人口和人力资本下降。
We examine the effect of rising temperatures on regional economic development, using annual sub-national data for over 1500 regions in 152 countries between 1990 and 2017. In a panel setting with region- and country-year fixed effects, we find no evidence of a homogeneous or heterogeneous effect of rising temperatures on economic development as measured by regional per capita income. Additionally, we find no non-linear relationship between temperature and economic development. We also employ a long-difference approach that is attuned to exploring the long-run relationship between rising temperatures and regional income. Results indicate that rising temperatures have a negative long-run impact on regional per capita income for a minority of regions located in countries with weak economic, legal and political institutions. Furthermore, these vulnerable regions experience a decline in long-term population and human capital development. The use of alternative regional per capita GDP data from 1950 onwards yields similar empirical results. Our findings suggest that negative economic effects of temperature increase with time, only becoming apparent in the long run for regions in already disadvantaged countries. Thus, country-specific conditions may moderate regional economic vulnerability to future temperature increases due to global climate change.