UK Foreign Direct Investment in uncertain economic times
使用时变贝叶斯模型评估宏观经济不确定性对英国外国直接投资流入的影响，发现英国自身不确定性和汇率、利率上升会抑制投资，而降低公司税和美国不确定性上升则有利。
This paper uses time-varying Bayesian models to assess the impact of the shifting, and progressively more volatile (especially since the EU Referendum vote in 2016) macroeconomic landscape on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the UK. FDI inflows are depressed in response to higher UK-specific economic and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger real exchange rate and a higher interest rate also have a negative effect. It benefits from lower UK corporate tax rates and higher US uncertainty, the latter creating investment opportunities in the UK. Rising economic policy uncertainty since the EU Referendum, has led to FDI losses of up to 0.5% of GDP.