Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates
研究1996至2016年美国总统辩论期间，候选人表现如何影响96种货币的日内汇率回报，发现保护主义候选人胜选概率上升时，与美国双边贸易高的国家货币贬值。
We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on the cross section of intraday exchange rate returns of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. The performance of the candidates in the debate is an exogenous shock to the election probability. We find that currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate, while no significant impact is detected for countries with bilateral US exports to GDP below 2 percent. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes, while the candidates' stance towards military and immigration play a minor role.