Assessing Income Convergence with a Long‐run Forecasting Approach: Some New Results
提出一种基于低频计量方法的简单程序来评估国际收入趋同，使用90个国家的数据发现比以往研究更积极的证据，但对收入趋同的必然性提出质疑。
Relying on low frequency econometric methods, a new simple procedure to assess international income convergence is introduced. It implements the long‐run forecasting definition and discards short‐ and medium‐term information contents of the data as these may produce misleading evidence. Robustness to non‐stationarities is achieved using first differences of (logged) per capita incomes. Application to a selected sample of 90 different countries provides mixed but generally more positive evidence than most previous studies. Nevertheless, it casts many doubts on the inevitability of income convergence, at least in practically relevant time frames and as a worldwide phenomenon.