Not a Flying Start after All? A Comment
评论指出Carneiro等人(2015)关于挪威带薪产假改革对后代影响的论文存在错误描述,改革并非引入而是延长了产假,且其声称的断点从未存在,处理组和对照组产假条件相同。
In a paper published in the Journal of Political Economy, Carneiro, Løken, and Salvanes (2015) reported large positive effects on offspring outcomes of a reform they described as introducing paid maternity leave in Norway. Causal identification rested on a discontinuity implying that only mothers giving birth after a specific cutoff date were entitled to paid leave. We show that the analysis relied on an incorrect description of the reform. The reform did not introduce paid maternity leave, but extended it by 5–6 weeks. The postulated discontinuity never existed as treatment and control groups had the same maternity leave conditions.