Unintended environmental impacts of private automated vehicles: Insights from Gunma Prefecture, Japan
研究了日本群马县2050年引入私人自动驾驶汽车对环境的影响，发现若无气候政策，总出行需求增加29-48%，温室气体排放上升；但结合电动化和电网脱碳政策可减排60%。
This study explores the environmental impact of privately-owned automated vehicles (PAVs), particularly their potential to disrupt road transport. Context-dependent factors, such as usage patterns, powertrain technology, and energy sources, strongly influence PAVs’ environmental effects on road passenger transport policies. In a 2050 case study of Gunma Prefecture, Japan, a car-dependent region with an ageing population, PAV introduction increases total travel demand by 29–48%. Without dedicated climate policies, PAVs may raise greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and life cycle air pollutants, conflicting with Japan’s mid-century carbon neutrality goal. However, integrating PAV adoption with policies promoting fleet electrification and power grid decarbonization can reduce overall GHG emissions by 60% and enhance local air quality, while impacting global life cycle air pollutants. This research contributes to existing knowledge and emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address unintended consequences of PAV introduction, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in the field.