Does Dividend Policy Lead the Economy?
研究了总股利支付率对未来经济活动的预测能力，发现其主要驱动因素是盈利增长的长期可预测性，且优于其他常见预测指标。
Abstract I investigate the predictive role of the aggregate dividend–payout ratio () for future economic activity. A vector‐autoregression‐based variance decomposition shows that the main driving force of is long‐run predictability of earnings growth, with dividend growth predictability assuming a secondary role. Consistent with this result, long‐horizon regressions indicate that is a significant predictor, especially at intermediate and long forecasting horizons, of future aggregate business conditions. Critically, outperforms several popular equity and bond predictors from the literature. The predictive ability of remains robust in an out‐of‐sample forecasting analysis. Overall, conveys important information about the economy.