Estimating Expected Returns: Then and Now
作者回顾三十年来对股票预期收益思考的演变，给出标普500指数10年预期收益的当前估计，并介绍一个低成本通用投资组合，对首席投资官、资产配置者及个人投资者有参考价值。
In this article, the author discusses the evolution of his thinking about the expected return of equities over three decades, pointing out what has stayed constant and what has changed, and provides his current estimates of the 10-year expected return of the S&P 500 Index. He also presents a simple universal portfolio that reflects his views and can be implemented at low cost by investors worldwide. Finally, he describes the evolution of his investment perspective from an asset-only perspective to an asset/liability/surplus perspective. His central results can be replicated using the S&P 500 dataset in the open-source R package PCRA and are relevant to CIOs and asset allocators as well as to individual investors.