The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices
研究了货币政策紧缩如何影响个人消费支出价格指数的各个子成分，发现总体价格指数在三年多后才显著下降，且不同价格类别的反应时间和幅度差异很大。
We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses across price categories, including some prices that show an initially positive response. We discuss theoretical interpretations of our findings and point to useful directions for future theoretical research. We also show how to re-aggregate our cross-sectional estimates and their standard errors, taking into account dependence between different prices using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach. Re-aggregation exercises show that changes in expenditure behavior have not accelerated the long-lagged response of inflation to monetary policy.