How heuristic pricing shapes the aggregate market: the “Cheap Twin Paradox”
研究二手车经销商在不确定市场中如何定价，发现97%的经销商采用类似荷兰拍卖的启发式策略，该策略比均衡模型更能解释定价特征并带来更高利润。
Abstract How do firms set prices when faced with an uncertain market? We study the pricing strategies of car dealers for used cars using online data and interviews. We find that 97% of 628 dealers employ an aspiration-level heuristic similar to a Dutch auction. Dealers adapt the parameters of the heuristic—initial price, duration, and change in price—to their local market conditions, such as number of competitors, population density, and GDP per capita. At the same time, the aggregate market is described by a model of equilibrium price dispersion. Unlike the equilibrium model, the heuristic correctly predicts systematic pricing characteristics such as high initial price, price stickiness, and the “cheap twin paradox.” We also find first evidence that heuristic pricing can generate higher profits given uncertainty than the equilibrium strategy.