The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Economy
利用俄罗斯2014年西方制裁等事件，研究发现信贷供给冲击导致产出、消费和投资增长下降，且高负债家庭和大企业对信贷条件更敏感。
Abstract What role do credit supply shocks (CSS) play in macroeconomic dynamics in emerging economies? We exploit Russia's setting, including the 2014 Western sanctions, and show that a negative CSS normalized to 0.5 p.p. increase in the lending rate leads to a decrease of 2 p.p. in the output growth rate, 1.5 p.p. in the consumption growth rate and 5 p.p. in the investment growth rate within a quarter. The heterogeneity of the household and firm responses to CSS is driven by debt‐to‐income and leverage ratios, with indebted poorer households and larger firms being more sensitive to fluctuations in credit conditions.