Tracking trend output using expectations data
提出利用预期调查数据区分永久和暂时冲击的新方法，通过时变向量自回归模型追踪英国制造业的趋势产出，并刻画过去20年的产出波动。
Abstract This article proposes a new approach to measuring trend output that exploits survey data on expectations to distinguish the effects of permanent and transitory shocks and to track the time-variation in the processes underlying the determination of output. The approach is illustrated using measures of output expectations and output uncertainties based on a business survey conducted for UK manufacturing. The measures are employed in a time-varying vector autoregression (VAR) to track trend output and to provide a compelling characterization of the output fluctuations in UK manufacturing over the last 20 years.