Everyday Econometricians: Selection Neglect and Overoptimism When Learning from Others
通过两个实验研究人们在投资游戏中从他人结果学习时，是否忽视选择偏差并过度乐观，发现该偏差在他人更精明时加重、在信息更相关时减轻，并探索了补救措施。
This study explores selection neglect in an experimental investment game where individuals can learn from others’ outcomes. Experiment 1 examines aggregate-level equilibrium behavior. We find strong evidence of selection neglect and corroborate several comparative static predictions of Jehiel’s (2018) model, showing that the severity of the bias is aggravated by the sophistication of other individuals and moderated when information is more correlated across individuals. Experiment 2 focuses on individual decision-making, isolating the influence of beliefs from possible confounding factors. This allows us to classify individuals according to their degree of naïvety and explore the limits of, and potential remedies for, selection neglect.