Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market
使用结构向量自回归模型研究德国天然气市场，发现2022年俄罗斯供给中断导致天然气价格飙升，主要源于供给冲击和储气需求冲击，对产出的影响相对温和。
Summary We use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared with what we observe in the data.