Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
利用德克萨斯州1997年和2003年宪法修正案允许住房权益贷款用于非住房目的这一自然实验，研究发现更易获得信贷在1997-2007年间显著降低了劳动力参与率，且结果对改进的合成控制方法稳健。
We exploit the 1997 and 2003 constitutional amendments in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for nonhousing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Using state-level as well as micro data, we find that easier access to housing credit led to a notably lower labor force participation rate between 1997 and 2007. Our findings are remarkably robust to improved synthetic control methods based on insights from machine learning. Our research shows that negative labor market effects of easier credit access are important for assessing its stimulative impact on overall growth.