Environmental and health impacts of banning passenger cars with internal combustion engines: A case study of Leeds, UK
研究以英国利兹为例，用“车队-排放-健康”模型评估不同时间点禁售燃油车对PM2.5和NOx排放及过早死亡的影响，发现提前禁售可大幅减少NOx但PM2.5略增，需加强非尾气排放管控。
Governments worldwide are considering banning the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to address environmental and public health issues. However, the environmental and health impacts of banning ICEV sales remain unclear. Here, we evaluated the effects of banning ICEV sales under various implementation timelines on PM2.5 and NOx emissions in Leeds, UK, and the associated premature deaths, using a novel ’Fleet-Emission-Health’ model. The results showed that the earlier ban on ICEV sales led to an almost 100% reduction in NOx by 2040, whereas total PM2.5 increased slightly due to more non-exhaust PM2.5 emissions emitted from battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Moreover, banning ICEV sales in 2030 would avoid 28 deaths in Leeds in 2040 compared to those in 2022, due to the reduction of NOx and PM2.5 emissions from ICEV exhaust. The findings indicate that stricter regulations on non-exhaust emissions are necessary to mitigate environmental and public health effects.