The Lasting Effects of Terrorism on Hotel Performance: Evidence from Jihadist Attacks in Europe
研究了欧洲圣战袭击对酒店客房销售、日均房价、入住率、收入和每间可用客房收入的动态因果效应，发现所有指标在袭击后6个月内显著恶化，需近4年才能完全恢复。
Despite extant research on how terrorism impacts tourism demand, we still know little about its long-lasting effects and how long it takes for the hospitality industry to bounce back. Moreover, while terrorism deters demand, the effect on prices and revenues is still poorly understood. Rooted on microeconomic and Prospect Theory, this work investigates the causal effects of Jihadist attacks in Europe on five measures of hotel performance: rooms sold, average daily rates, occupancy rates, revenues and revenues per available room. Using monthly panel data from January 2010 to December 2019 for 29 cities, we employ staggered difference-in-differences to uncover the dynamic causal effects of the attacks on hotel performance. Our results reveal that all metrics significantly worsen within the first 6 months after terrorist attacks and require nearly 4 years to recover fully.