Analysis without Theory: How the Statistical Research Group Shaped Milton Friedman's Economic Methodology
揭示弗里德曼在统计研究小组的工作如何影响其1953年方法论，提出处理“糟糕数据”的两种观点：理论假设仅指定条件而非决定，模型测试需与基准比较。
Abstract This article shows that Friedman's experiences with the research conducted at the Statistical Research Group (SRG) significantly shaped his 1953 methodology. These experiences gave him the ideas for a methodology for statistical analysis when dealing with “lousy data,” that is, when the conditions under which they are generated are not clear, when the data are “uncontrolled experiences.” Two views emerged from his SRG work. One is his view on theoretical assumptions: they only specify and do not determine under which conditions a model or device is expected to work. The other is his view on testing: the working of a device should be tested in comparison with a standard. Assessing the performance of a model with a benchmark model makes irrelevant the uncontrollable, only partly known, complex mass of circumstances under which both models perform. So both views were two sides of the same coin.