Developer sentiment, developer’s strategy and housing supply: evidence from Hong Kong
研究了开发商情绪如何影响项目层面的决策和住房供给，发现开发商情绪与预期开发等待时间呈U型关系，且情绪增强时最优开发密度下降，以香港市场为实证案例。
The increasingly important role of sentiment in the housing market has complicated the challenges facing developers during boom-and-bust cycles. This study investigates how developer sentiment affects developers’ decision-making and the housing supply at the project level. As the standard evaluation usually overlooks sentiment resulting in suboptimal inferences, we develop a new theoretical model that analyses both sentiment and developers’ optimal strategies. Our findings suggest a ‘U’-shape relationship between developer sentiment and the expected waiting time to develop. Second, the optimal development density declines when developer sentiment intensifies. The Hong Kong housing market is used as a case for empirical analysis.