Partisan expectations and COVID-era inflation
研究发现新冠期间民主党人的通胀预期保持稳定，而共和党人的预期则显著上升并更易受冲击，这种预期分化还推高了实际通胀。
We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans' expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counterfactual exercises imply that, had all expectations become as unanchored as those of Republicans, average inflation would have been two to four percentage points higher for much of the pandemic period, ceteris paribus.