Innovation and Spillover Effects of Energy Demand Shocks in Belt and Road Economies
研究验证了能源成本上升会激励企业创新的诱导创新假说，利用中国能源需求激增作为外部冲击，发现能源出口国能源相对成本每上升1%，创新概率增加2.1%至5.1%。
The induced innovation hypothesis, initially proposed by Sir John Hicks, posits that as the cost of energy rises compared to other input factors, firms are motivated to engage in innovative practices to counteract the increased expenses related to energy consumption. This innovation can manifest through the development and implementation of technologies, processes, or methodologies that enhance energy efficiency or diminish overall energy dependency. In this study, we empirically examine and validate this hypothesis. By theoretically modeling how innovation responds to elevated energy costs, we exploit China’s substantial surge in energy demand as an external shock to global demand, to empirically test the predictions associated with our theoretical framework. We test these predictions using firm level data in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Our findings strongly support the induced innovation hypothesis, revealing that, on average, a 1 percent rise in the relative cost of energy corresponds to a 2.1 to 5.1 percent increase in the likelihood of innovation in energy-exporting countries and a 0.5 to 3.6 percent increase in non-energy-exporting countries. These results are robust to various methodological variations and data restriction exercises.