Interpreting Cohort Profiles of Life Cycle Earnings Volatility
利用社保数据与当前人口调查，研究了1970年代末至1990年代中期收入波动下降及之后男性收入波动稳定的趋势，发现生命周期内收入波动呈U型。
We present new estimates of earnings volatility over time and the life cycle for men and women by race and human capital, using Social Security earnings linked to the Current Population Survey. From the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, there is a strong negative trend in earnings volatility driven by a decline in transitory variance. From the mid-1990s, there is relative stability in trends of male earnings volatility due to an increase in the variance of permanent shocks. Cohort analyses indicate that earnings volatility is U-shaped, driven by large permanent shocks early and later in the life cycle.