Real exchange rate and import substitution episodes: Evidence from a developing economy
利用阿根廷2003-2008年实际汇率大幅贬值的准自然实验，研究发现劳动密集型行业更易出现进口替代，且与出口激增行业存在互补性，挑战了传统进口替代政策与出口激励相冲突的观点。
We investigate the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on the growth of import-substituting sectors using the quasi-natural experiment of Argentina’s large and lasting RER depreciation following the end of the Convertibility regime. To this end, we developed an episode detection algorithm to identify sectors with substantial import reductions from 2003 to 2008, while controlling for changes in aggregate income. Our analysis examines the theoretical transmission mechanisms through which the RER influences the performance of the tradable sector competing with imports. The results reveal three main findings: First, labor-intensive sectors showed a higher probability of occurrence of import substitution episodes during 2003–2008. This is in line with our expectations and the traditional trade theory, given that the RER should increase profitability in these kinds of sectors more. Second, we find that the higher level of the RER increases the probability of an import substitution episode when the sector shares a higher number of similar capabilities with sectors in which the country is already internationally competitive. Last, we find complementarities between the sectors with import substitution episodes and those that achieved the status of export surge episodes during the same period (2003–2008). In this sense, and in contrast to the traditional consensus view about import substitution policies, we do not observe any tension between developing sectors for the domestic market and the incentive to export growth when the level of the RER is used to promote growth and diversification in the tradable sector.