Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying
研究了经济体人均收入增长路径的决定因素可能随时间变化，通过未观测成分分析面板模型，发现初始相对收入能较好预测长期相对收入，且相对贫困的经济体平均仍保持贫困。
Abstract The determinants of an economy's growth path for income per head may vary over time. In this paper, we apply unobserved components analysis to an otherwise standard panel model of economic growth dynamics so that an economy's long‐run relative income per head can change at any point of time. We apply this model to data for US states for 1929–2021 and the world economy for 1970–2019. In both datasets an economy's initial relative income per head is a good predictor of its long‐run relative income per head. Relatively poor economies on average remain relatively poor.