Forced migration and local economic development: Evidence from postwar Hungary
利用二战后德国少数民族被驱逐出匈牙利这一自然实验，研究发现强制迁移导致原籍地经济活动长期下降，机制包括向农业转型和技能差异，揭示了强制迁移会造成持久区域不平等。
We investigate the effects of forced migration on sending economies using the post-WW2 expulsion of German minorities from Hungary as a natural experiment. We combine historical and contemporary data sources to show that the forced migrations led to lasting reductions in economic activity. Plausible mechanisms driving this result appear to be sectoral change (shift towards agriculture) and skills differences between Germans and the settlers that replaced them. Our analysis reveals that forced migration can cause lasting regional inequalities in sending economies. • Forced migration leads to a lasting negative effect on economic activity in origin economies. • Affected areas increasingly specialise in agricultural activities for decades after. • Organised resettlement also appears to be driving negative effects.