Skewness preferences: Evidence from online poker
利用在线扑克游戏的大规模面板数据(n=4,450,585),检验个体在真实风险决策中对偏度的偏好,发现人们显著偏好正偏度,这与期望效用理论不一致,且该效应在经验丰富和不成功的玩家中最为明显。
We test for skewness preferences in a large set of observational panel data on online poker games (n=4,450,585). Each observation refers to a choice between a safe option and a binary risk of winning or losing the game. Our setting offers a real-world choice situation with substantial incentives where probability distributions are simple, transparent, and known to the decision-makers. Individuals reveal a strong and robust preference for skewness, which is inconsistent with expected utility theory. The effect of skewness is most pronounced among experienced and unsuccessful players but remains significant in all subsamples that we investigate, in contrast to the effect of variance.