Homeowners’ financial vulnerability over the house price cycle
利用基于主体的住房市场模型，结合英国微观数据，研究了负债房主在住房周期中的金融脆弱性动态，发现购房和财富效应导致的储蓄减少是主要驱动因素。
Abstract This paper investigates the financial vulnerability dynamics of indebted homeowners over the housing cycle using an agent-based housing market model, calibrated with UK microdata. The findings suggest that financial vulnerability is primarily driven by house purchases and dissaving due to a wealth effect on consumption. The former is more important during house price upswings, while the latter becomes significant at high price levels. Additionally, current vulnerability is path-dependent on previous purchases at high prices, as these purchases, due to a wealth effect, result in temporarily elevated consumption and consequently reduced financial buffers.