Energy constraints on macroeconomic paradigms
本文研究了20世纪美国三大宏观经济范式（前凯恩斯、凯恩斯、货币主义）的能源特征，发现范式转变的根源在于能源供应的变化，如石油发现和峰值产量。
The three US macroeconomic policy paradigms of the twentieth century, defined by transformational economic shocks, had distinct energy characteristics. The pre-Keynesian era (to 1929) was dominated by coal; the Keynesian era (1930–1973) witnessed substantial growth with unconstrained access to abundant domestic oil supplies; and the Monetarist era (after ∼1973) was energy constrained. Moreover, the economic shocks that precipitated paradigm changes were rooted in changes to energy supply. The Great Crash of 1929 followed from discovery of vast oil fields in the US Southwest. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 occurred in part due to US peak oil production; and together they established the conditions for the First Oil Crisis of 1973. • Three US 20 th century macroeconomic paradigms are defined based on access to energy • Transforming from the Coal Age to Oil Age , the Crash of 1929 began the Keynesian era • Unlimited access to domestic oil supply underlay rapid growth in the Keynesian era • Peak oil and end of Bretton-Woods led to the Oil Crisis and emergence of Monetarism • The Monetarist era is energy constrained with high and fluctuating oil prices