A sequential transit network design algorithm with optimal learning under correlated beliefs
提出一种结合顺序网络设计与最优学习的人工智能算法，帮助公交运营者在数据有限时逐步扩展路线系统，并通过对比三种学习策略验证了考虑相关性的探索方法效果更优。
Mobility service route design requires demand information to operate in a service region. Transit planners and operators can access various data sources including household travel survey data and mobile device location logs. However, when implementing a mobility system with emerging technologies, estimating demand becomes harder because of limited data resulting in uncertainty. This study proposes an artificial intelligence-driven algorithm that combines sequential transit network design with optimal learning to address the operation under limited data. An operator gradually expands its route system to avoid risks from inconsistency between designed routes and actual travel demand. At the same time, observed information is archived to update the knowledge that the operator currently uses. Three learning policies are compared within the algorithm: multi-armed bandit, knowledge gradient, and knowledge gradient with correlated beliefs. For validation, a new route system is designed on an artificial network based on public use microdata areas in New York City. Prior knowledge is reproduced from the regional household travel survey data. The results suggest that exploration considering correlations can achieve better performance compared to greedy choices and other independent belief-based techniques in general. In future work, the problem may incorporate more complexities such as demand elasticity to travel time, no limitations to the number of transfers, and costs for expansion.