Valuing Long-Term Property Rights with Anticipated Political Regime Shifts
利用香港2047年后土地续期保护的独特差异，发现无续期保护的房产折价8%，殖民租约额外折价8%，折价随时间增加，尤其在悲观地区更显著。
We identify exposure to political risk by exploiting a unique variation around land lease extension protection after 2047 in Hong Kong’s housing market due to historical arrangements. Relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with unprotected leases granted by the current government are sold at a discount of 8 percent; those with colonial leases suffer an additional discount of 8 percent. Incorporating estimated structural parameters that suggest an additional 20 percent ground rent after 2047, our model matches empirical discounts well across lease horizons. Discounts increase over time, particularly in areas with greater pessimism about the city’s future.