Growth models and voter preferences: the moderating impact of export-led growth on centre-left voters
研究国家增长模式如何影响选民经济偏好，发现出口导向型增长会削弱中左翼选民对工资上涨的需求，使其偏好与中右翼趋同，基于19个西方国家的数据验证。
This article examines the relationship between national growth models and voters’ economic preferences. We theorise that centre-left voters are cross-pressured between a demand for higher wages and concerns about competitiveness, but the impact varies by growth model: the more a country is export-led, the more the competitiveness motive is internalised, moderating worker demands for wage increases. As a result, we expect a convergence in preferences between centre-left and centre-right voters as the reliance on export-led growth increases. We corroborate these claims through three sets of empirical analyses: a cross-sectional analysis of individual wage dissatisfaction in nineteen Western countries, a panel analysis of wage dissatisfaction in a typical export-led (Germany) and a typical consumption-led economy (UK), and an analysis of preferences for export-led growth in these two countries. Our findings contribute to the emerging literature on the politics of growth models and the waning of economic conflict in advanced capitalist democracies.