The Growth Effect of State Capacity Revisited
基于1960-2022年跨国数据构建国家能力指数，发现其提升可带来人均收入6%-7%的增长，但效应仅为传统估计的一半，且全球异质性源于史前人口多样性、国家历史等因素。
Abstract I provide new empirical estimates of the effect of state capacity on economic development across countries over the period 1960–2022. Specifically, I construct a comprehensive state capacity index based on six different dimensions of effective state institutions available in the Varieties of Democracy (V‐Dem) dataset. Then, I estimate heterogeneous parameter models under a common factor framework. My empirical strategy explicitly allows the growth effect of state capacity to differ across countries and accounts for unobserved common factors. My preferred estimates indicate that a one‐standard‐deviation increase in the V‐Dem‐based state capacity index predicts a rise in income per person by roughly 6%–7%. The magnitude of such impact equates to less than half of that implied by conventional estimates obtained under highly restrictive assumptions of slope homogeneity and cross‐sectional independence. Furthermore, I provide partial evidence suggesting that worldwide heterogeneity in the economic importance of state capacity is deeply rooted in prehistorically determined population diversity, state history, long‐term relatedness between countries, and interpersonal trust.