From text to treasure: the predictive superiority of a FinTech index in stock market returns
研究用《纽约时报》文本构建金融科技指数，发现该指数能有效预测美国股市超额回报，尤其在衰退期表现突出，且优于传统宏观指标，为投资者提供额外信息。
This study employs a text analysis methodology to construct a Financial Technology (FinTech) Index, utilizing textual data from The New York Times. The primary aim is to investigate the correlation between financial technology and stock market performance. Our findings provide compelling evidence that the FinTech Index possesses substantial predictive capability for excess returns in the US stock market, a feature that becomes particularly pronounced during economic downturns. Notably, when compared with traditional macroeconomic indicators, the FinTech Index offers valuable incremental insights. Moreover, this study expands to include sector-level and international market analyses, demonstrating the broad applicability and robust performance of the FinTech Index. Importantly, through the use of out-of-sample testing, we substantiate that the FinTech Index demonstrates superior predictive accuracy, presenting opportunities for investors to achieve higher economic returns.