How does bank opacity affect credit growth and return predictability?
研究发现银行不透明度会放大信贷增长对股票收益的预测能力，当不透明度较高时，信贷增长对收益的预测效果比平均水平强3到4倍。
Prior research finds that bank credit growth predicts lower bank equity returns in subsequent one to three years. Stocks of banks with high credit growth are initially overvalued because of overoptimism or elevated sentiment of bank shareholders. Eventually, these stocks underperform, generating lower returns. We argue that shareholder sentiment should exhibit its strongest effects on the performance of bank stocks when banks are opaque, or there is uncertainty about the quality of bank loans. Accordingly, we show that an increase in bank’s financial reporting opacity amplifies the predictive ability of credit growth for equity returns by 3 to 4 times relative to when opacity is at its mean.