Multi-disruption resilient hub location–allocation network design for less-than-truckload logistics
针对零担物流中折扣率变化和道路中断风险，提出一个集成逐步折扣函数和可靠性优化的枢纽网络设计模型，利用FMEA和概率论推导出多故障下服务能力的闭合公式，实现80%服务水平的韧性网络。
Less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics presents an interesting and often overlooked practice area of hub location–allocation problems, with its variable discount rates playing a game-changing role. Vulnerability of the roads is another critical factor that has often been neglected when designing hub networks. In this paper, a novel integrated model is designed to solve the LTL hub network design problem, incorporating a practical stepwise discount function. The proposed model is further extended to a reliability-oriented version that can resiliently withstand multiple, simultaneous road disruptions. We use the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) technique to encompass the likelihood of experiencing each failure mode, together with the monetary and service-level effects. Coupled with probability theory, it leads to the introduction of a novel closed form for serviceability under multiple concurrent failures. Having such a function enables us to deploy exact optimization methods. Given the natural complexity of the problem, we also present effective linearization approaches. Numerical benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of the novel reliability-oriented approach over the basic version, successfully realizing desired serviceability levels as high as 80%. It also benefits from avoiding unnecessary rerouting, making it even more attractive for policymakers to design efficiently resilient transportation networks, especially if low-range, zero-emission trucks are incorporated.