From Bouncing Back to Bouncing Forward: A Temporal Trajectory Model of Organizational Resilience
提出组织韧性的轨迹模型，区分了三种突发事件类型（随机事件、概率性转变、临界点），并分析了组织在应对事件时如何构建、重构和重新配置时间轨迹，以帮助管理者理解从“反弹”到“向前跃进”的韧性过程。
Resilience research has extensively addressed how organizations cope with disruptive events and their immediate impact. The focus of this research has been on how organizations “bounce back” to a pre-disruption state. However, organizations are also challenged to “bounce forward” toward unprecedented and uncertain futures in the wake of disruptive events without losing sight of their pasts. In this article, we develop a trajectory model of organizational resilience that focuses on how actors project temporal trajectories of responses toward disruptive events, reconstitute the trajectories in immediate response to the event, and reconfigure the trajectories toward the ensuing future. The model addresses the need to distinguish combinations of probability and the impact of disruptive events in organizational resilience research. We develop a typology of disruptive events from ecological research representing a distinct combination of probability and impact, labeled stochastic events, probabilistic transformations, and tipping points. We examine critical transitions in the trajectory model at which organizational resilience may or may not materialize. We conclude by considering the implications for theorizing organizational resilience between organizational levels and between different disruptive events, and for temporal organizational theorizing.