Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty
研究了企业如何因供应链不确定性调整供应商选择，进而影响生产网络结构和宏观经济产出与波动，对理解企业风险应对和宏观稳定有参考价值。
Supply chain disturbances can lead to substantial increases in production costs. To mitigate these risks, firms may take steps to reduce their reliance on volatile suppliers. We construct a model of endogenous network formation to investigate how these decisions affect the structure of the production network and the level and volatility of macroeconomic aggregates. When uncertainty increases in the model, producers prefer to purchase from more stable suppliers, even though they might sell at higher prices. The resulting reorganization of the network tends to reduce macroeconomic volatility, but at the cost of a decline in aggregate output. The model also predicts that more productive and stable firms have higher Domar weights—a measure of their importance as suppliers—in the equilibrium network. We provide a basic calibration of the model using U.S. data to evaluate the importance of these mechanisms.