Raising awareness of climate change: Nature, activists, politicians?
本文比较了自然因素（气温异常）和人为因素（政治事件、活动家罢工）对欧洲各国公众气候变化关注度的影响，发现短期活动家罢工、长期气温异常和政治会议预测效果最佳，且考虑区域间空间关系能显著提升预测。
This paper evaluates the relative importance of natural and human factors in shaping public awareness of climate change. I compare the predictive efficacy of natural factors, represented by air temperature deviations from historical norms, and human factors, encompassing noteworthy political events focused on environmental policies and movements led by environmental activists, in forecasting the salience of climate change topic over weekly and annual horizons using regional European countries’ data. The salience of climate change is proxied by the Google search intensity data. The activists’ movements are measured by weekly Friday for Future strikes. The best-performing predictor in the short term (weeks), is the size of activists’ strikes and in the longer term (years), positive deviations of maximum air temperature from historical norms and political meetings focused on environmental policies. The inter-regional spatial relations, when taken into account, significantly improve the forecasts of the future public interest in climate change.