Why is belief–action consistency so low? The role of belief uncertainty
实验发现人们的行为与信念常不一致，本文通过信念抽样模型检验信念不确定性是导致这种不一致的原因，并发现提高不确定性会增加不一致选择和随机信念报告。
Experimental research typically shows that best-response rates are below what plausible error rates would suggest. We experimentally test the conjecture that observed action–belief inconsistencies are related to belief uncertainty. We rely on a belief-sampling model that has been highly successful in explaining behavior in multi-armed bandit problems and aggregate outcomes in games, markets, and surveys. Our data shows that inducing higher belief uncertainty leads more frequently to choices that are inconsistent with stated beliefs and – in an experiment directly testing the mechanism – to stochastic belief reports. The uncertainty–inconsistency relationship continues to hold when we control for error costs econometrically in several ways.