The Returns to College Major Choice: Average and Distributional Effects, Career Trajectories, and Earnings Variability
利用德克萨斯州行政数据，研究发现大学专业选择的平均收入效应掩盖了收入增长、个体异质性和收入波动的重要差异，并通过生命周期效用模型比较了不同专业的中期效用与平均收入回报。
Abstract A growing literature examining labor market returns to college major is motivated by large returns to skill. Prior research focuses on mean effects rather than earnings growth and variability. Using administrative data from Texas, we find that mean differences mask important features of the returns to college majors. First, earnings growth varies across fields. Second, there is considerable effect heterogeneity across workers. Third, major choice affects earnings variability within workers over time. We use our results to simulate a lifecyle utility model and compare mid-career utility and mean earnings returns across fields while highlighting the important role of risk preferences.