Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location
利用英国南亚家庭普遍在家存放金饰的认知，发现国际金价波动影响入室盗窃的地点选择，南亚社区的盗窃案对金价变化更敏感。
We provide first evidence that variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely held perception in the United Kingdom that South Asian households store gold jewelry at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households. Using a neighborhood-level panel on crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighborhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighborhoods in the same municipality. We conduct various tests on neighborhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations.