Exploring the urban-rural dichotomies in post-pandemic migration intention: Empirical evidence from Europe
基于欧洲晴雨表数据和多层模型，研究发现新冠疫情并未引发大规模城市外迁，但大城市年轻人、远程办公和欧盟环保行动可能推动向农村迁移，而医疗资源不足则促使人口流向城市。
Since the beginning of the 21st century, we have been living in the ‘urban century’, characterised by a rise in the number of cities and mega-cities and a structural population increase in most cities, to the detriment of rural areas. Given the declining interest in rurality, the aims and scope of this paper are to map out the complex force field of rurality versus urbanity, and explore if the COVID pandemic has become a ‘game changer’ that thus may swift the existing patterns. Relying on multilevel modelling, to also account for between-country differences, and using Eurobarometer data on post-pandemic migration intention in both rural and urban areas, our results do not find support for a major post-covid urban exodus. Younger individuals from large cities are indeed more willing to leave for rural areas when they are convinced that they can play an active role in the local decision-making process. Teleworking, as well as EU concrete actions for addressing environmental issues, may also drive more migration toward rural areas. On the other hand, poor access to health services may push individuals towards urban areas. In policy terms, our findings advocate for improving access to public services in rural areas. In addition, the study reinforces the role of the Cohesion Policy to urge the twin transition, as facilitating teleworking and strengthening the environmental commitment were shown to make rural areas more appealing. • The pandemic did not generate a mass movement between rural and urban areas. • Individuals from large cities were shown to be more willing to leave for rural places. • EU investment alignment with rural needs may spur migration to rural areas. • The role of the Cohesion Policy in supporting green transition is vital as migration to rural areas rises with environmentally focused EU actions. • Rural digitalization may further reduce urban agglomeration in favour of more rural spaces which also advocates for the importance of digital transition.