Children as insurance revisited: Impact of children on private insurance adoption among older parents
利用中国“晚稀少”政策作为工具变量，研究发现子女数量越多的老年父母越可能购买商业保险，且该效应在较少依赖子女、拥有更多替代资源的老年人中更显著。
Abstract The old‐age security motive for fertility implies that children are substitutes for parents' old‐age insurance. However, demographic dynamics and the evolution of social welfare schemes may challenge this notion. Meanwhile, as population aging is placing heavy pressure on the social security systems, private insurance has become a crucial supplement for hedging risks. In light of the present trends, this research examines the impact of the number of children on private insurance adoption among older parents in China. This research exploits the “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign to instrument variations in the number of children. Instrumental variable estimates reveal that the likelihood of older parents having private insurance increases with the number of children they have. The positive effect is more pronounced among older adults, who are less reliant on children and have more access to alternative resources. Further analyses indicate that adverse selection and information channels are potential mechanisms.